Europe

In Europe, the main focus is on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in which the United States and most of the European Union countries are actively involved. The main events began on November 21, 2013, when Euromaidan was organized with the active support of external forces, also named the Revolution of Dignity, which led to unconstitutional actions. On February 24, 2022, under various pretexts, Russia began a " special military operation " (SVO). Military actions continue, and both sides suffer significant losses. NATO is strengthening its presence in the region, which also contributes to the growth of tension. Politicians and military personnel in Europe are calling on the population to prepare for a possible escalation of the conflict and predict hard times in European countries. The reasons for the bloody conflict are complex. There are historical factors (many in Russia, including prominent figures like President Vladimir Putin, who have expressed the view that Ukraine is an artificial entity. Putin has argued that Ukraine was created during the Soviet era and that Russians and Ukrainians are "one people" with a shared heritage), Russia's national security (NATO bases moving closer to Russia's borders), and geopolitical interests (in the form of direct access to the Crimean Peninsula, the operation of gas pipelines to Europe, and Ukraine's desire to join NATO). One of the most important reasons is the presence of a large amount of valuable minerals and extremely fertile lands, which attract the attention of all participants in the conflict. Incidentally, in this regard, Russia is also the subject of close and active (one might say unhealthy) interests of all developed (especially militarily powerful) countries. However, due to Russia's possession of enormous nuclear potential, the only way to get its hands on its natural resources is to collapse the state itself from within. Judging by the events taking place in Russia, they are very well aware of this and undertake extremely harsh countermeasures, which are perceived from the outside as repression, but from the point of view of the state’s survival in the current situation are the only possible ones.

Ukraine has significant reserves of natural resources, including natural gas, oil, coal, and rare earth metals. [4]These resources are of strategic importance and could be economically beneficial to any country that controls them.[5] Of the 50 strategic minerals critical to the United States, 22 are in Ukraine, including lithium, graphite, and titanium. Of the 34 strategic materials critical to the European Union, 25 can be mined in Ukraine. The reserves of strategic minerals in the territory of Ukraine, which is already under the control of the Russian Federation, are estimated at 6 trillion US dollars!

Fertile lands make Ukraine one of the largest agricultural producers in the world. Control over such resources can significantly strengthen the country's economic position and its influence on the international arena.

Ukraine's losses in this conflict are catastrophic: according to official data from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 70 thousand were killed and 100-120 thousand were wounded, 5.7 million refugees, 140 thousand buildings were destroyed, agriculture suffered significant losses, and financial losses amounted to hundreds of billions of US dollars.

Conclusion: the main cause of the tragedy in Ukraine is the economic and strategic interests of a group of countries, management errors, and the inability of the Ukrainian leadership to confront these challenges. It is quite possible that after the end of military actions, Ukraine, despite its size and pre-war economic power, will face the sad fate of Syria – it will be torn into pieces and will be under the control of other countries. Considering the enormous external debt of the country, which arose precisely as a result of military actions, this scenario is more than likely.

(insertion as of 2025, 2 March) << Taking into account the meeting of President Trump with Zelensky in February 2025, I have slightly updated the article published in December 2024.

The analysis of the latest events is completely consistent with our predictions regarding the separation of Ukraine. The United States is demanding a larger share of Ukraine's natural resources (in addition to the 2-3 million hectares already for rent) and has resorted to increased pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to achieve this goal. The Europeans, realizing that they were being taken out of the game and a piece of "pie" was snatched from the mouth, became very alarmed, and having gathered together, realizing that they would not be able to take anything away from the United States, decided to continue to put pressure on Russia to force it to give up part of the "pie".

Seeing such a development of events, in the situation of the current division of the world, Turkey also decided to take tough actions against Russia, remembering that Russia took Crimea from Turkey in 1783, and hatching plans to return the territories, when the Black Sea was an internal water body of the Ottoman Empire and Turkey controlled almost its entire coast including Western Georgia (Sukhumi, Batumi) and the southern coast to Trabzon. Taking into account that in this case, the long-term plans of the European Union and Turkey coincide, it is quite possible that, given the current US policy, to increase pressure on Russia, Turkey will be urgently accepted into the European Union. Considering that by squeezing Russia out of Syria and proving its role as a very serious player in the Middle East, possessing the first in terms of training, combat experience, and power army in the region, Turkey's membership in the European Union will be a very serious challenge for the Russian Federation. Turkey will be forced to join all sanctions imposed on Russia. Turkey's trade relations have a large share in Russia's income - a major buyer of gas and oil, a transit route for energy resources to Europe (via the "Turkish Stream"), construction of the Akkuyu NPP, the strategic Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, a partner that reduces the effect of sanctions.

Turkey's potential membership in the European Union will deal a strong blow to the Russian economy. Such a potential development of events, even subject to an agreement with the United States on the division of Ukrainian territory, will force Russia to concede something to the European Union and Turkey. However, extremely strong pressure on Russia may also lead to harsh military actions against Ukraine and perhaps some European countries.

(end of the insertion) >>

Moldova. Moldova's economic importance for Russia and the EU is not as great as, for example, the importance of major trading partners or countries with large energy resources, but Moldova has strategic importance in several areas. Moldova is located between Ukraine and Romania, and this geopolitical position makes it an important element in the context of Russia's influence on the Black Sea region and Eastern Europe. This is why Moldova's geopolitical stability is also important for Eastern European countries. In addition, Moldova plays a role in the EU's energy strategy, especially in the context of diversifying energy sources and supply routes to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources. The autonomous territorial entity of Gagauzia within Moldova has pro-Russian sentiments, which increases Russia's influence in the region. Moldova is actively seeking integration into the European Union, which will promote European values and standards in the region. This will also open up new opportunities for economic and political cooperation, which irritates Russia. The EU is Moldova's largest trading partner, and a significant portion of Moldovan exports are sent to EU countries.

Moldova has not seen any major armed conflicts in recent years, and the situation in Transnistria remains tense. In 2022, a series of explosions and shelling took place in Transnistria, raising concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict. These incidents were perceived as provocations aimed at destabilizing the region.

In the presidential elections in Moldova in October-November 2024, Maia Sandu won with 52.76% of the vote in the second round. The opposition, represented mainly by the Party of Socialists and its candidate Alexandru Stoianoglo, expressed dissatisfaction with the election results, alleging violations and possible falsifications. The opposition put forward demands for re-elections. Protests and rallies were organized, but international observers recognized the elections as free and fair. The Moldovan authorities used several measures to suppress these protests. Opposition leaders and activists involved in organizing rallies were arrested. The police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the protesters. The authorities limited the opposition's access to state media and strengthened their control over the information space. New laws were adopted toughening penalties for participation in unauthorized rallies and protests. These measures have drawn criticism from international organizations and human rights activists, who have expressed concern about the violation of human rights and freedom of assembly in Moldova. The political situation in Moldova remains complex and unstable. Despite Maia Sandu's victory in the presidential elections and the successful holding of a constitutional referendum, the opposition continues to express discontent and organize protests. International observers recognized the elections as free and fair, but accusations of violations and falsifications by the opposition persist. Although the authorities are taking steps to maintain order, tensions in society remain high.

Conclusion: the tense situation in Moldova is caused by the economic and strategic interests of a group of countries. Stability in Moldova depends on the ability of the new leadership to confront these challenges.